WK33 · 2026
BEHIND THE SHIELD
On July 30, President Trump and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy hosted veterans at the White House to launch the Freedom Haulers campaign — an expedited CDL licensing pathway for military veterans with heavy-vehicle experience. Seven additional states joined the Even Exchange Program, bringing the total to 34 states. The program now allows qualified veterans to bypass both written and driving exams to fast-track their CDL. Werner Enterprises pledged to hire 1,400 military veterans and military spouses in 2027 — a 67% boost to its veteran workforce.
The policy mechanics are meaningful. The FMCSA Military Skills Test Waiver window has been extended from one year to two years post-service, doubling the timeframe for veterans to convert military driving experience into a commercial credential. Active-duty service members can now test for a CDL in the state where they are stationed rather than traveling back to their home state. The GI Bill covers up to 100% of CDL tuition at approved schools. The SkillBridge program allows transitioning service members to spend their final 180 days of active duty in civilian trucking training.
The context matters: this is the first federal action to directly address the supply-side driver gap that has been the structural explanation for elevated rates since early 2026. The non-domiciled CDL rule took effect March 16, eliminating CDL eligibility for most foreign-licensed drivers and affecting an estimated 200,000 commercial drivers. Freedom Haulers is the first offsetting policy response. It will not close the gap overnight — the pipeline from application to active commercial driving runs weeks to months — but it is a supply-side move worth tracking as the industry heads into peak season.
The practical implication for shippers: the driver gap is now a policy priority, not just an industry problem. That changes the timeline for when structural capacity relief might arrive. If Freedom Haulers scales as intended, the earliest meaningful impact on available driver supply is Q1 2027. Until then, the structural constraints that have driven rates since March remain fully intact.
Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.32/mi this week — down $0.06 from the prior week and down roughly 30–40¢ from the July peak over the past five weeks. Tender rejection rates eased from 17.65% to 14.1%. On the surface, that looks like softening. The relevant context is that all-in rates remain approximately 50% above year-ago levels and the load-to-truck ratio is 10.93 — versus 6.64 a year ago. Truck posts are down 27.8% year over year. Capacity pulled back faster than freight this week.
This is not a market returning to normal. It is a market that has reset to a new normal. The pullback is a correction off a peak that was abnormally high — not a structural reversal. Spot is still $0.07/mi above contract, a spread that has been inverted since December 2025. The contract repricing cycle that follows a sustained spot-over-contract inversion historically runs 6–9 months. It is in month eight.
The forward picture: the 35-day DAT Rate Forecast puts dry van spot at $2.29/mi in early September — roughly $0.03 below this week, still $0.63/mi above the same date last year. Flatbed eased off July highs but remains up nearly 40% year over year. Reefer holds near the top of the historical range in the Midwest, rural Northeast, and Northern California.
UPS reported Q2 2026 results that beat both revenue and margin expectations — consolidated revenue +7.6% to $22.8B, EPS $1.76 (vs. $1.66 estimate), operating profit +12%. Volume fell 3.3% year over year. The decline is deliberate. UPS is systematically exiting low-margin e-commerce business — particularly Amazon — and concentrating on higher-yield healthcare and automotive segments. The carrier is choosing profitability over volume share.
FedEx is executing a parallel consolidation through Network 2.0: closing 17 distribution centers, eliminating approximately 200–300 jobs, and concentrating volume at larger hubs. Each closure eliminates duplicate handling and reduces local delivery costs. DHL Express is capitalizing on the capacity gaps created by both incumbents' strategic retreats, winning volume on competitive lanes.
The practical implication: the parcel market is restructuring around fewer, higher-margin carriers. The capacity UPS and FedEx are abandoning is not being replaced by equivalent alternatives. Shippers with high e-commerce or low-margin parcel volume should expect reduced service options and upward rate pressure on the lanes those carriers are exiting.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6% in July — up 2.3 percentage points from June and the highest reading since May 2022. This is the seventh consecutive month above 50%, the threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The Production Index surged to 58.5 from 52.2. The Employment Index reached 52.8 — its first expansionary reading in nearly three years, signaling that manufacturers are adding headcount to meet rising output demands.
Seven straight months of manufacturing expansion above 50%, combined with a production index at a four-year high, translates into sustained and accelerating industrial freight demand on truckload and flatbed lanes through the fall. This is not a tariff-driven anomaly. It is a sustained trend. The Q2 GDP advance estimate came in at 1.5% — a BEA revision from the initial 2.8% read — but final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%, nearly double the Q1 pace. The private demand acceleration is real even as the headline softened.
The combined picture: manufacturing is expanding at the fastest pace in four years, private demand is accelerating, and freight spending is up 28.1% year over year (U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index). The rate environment has fundamental demand-side support. The pullback from July peak rates is a correction, not a collapse.