WK30 · 2026
BEHIND THE SHIELD
JB Hunt reported second-quarter earnings on July 15 and the results were unambiguous: revenue up 19% year-over-year, EPS up 45%, intermodal volume up 10% — the first double-digit volume growth in a decade. The brokerage segment returned to profitability. The stock surged 7.5% in after-hours to a new 52-week high.
But the most instructive number was in the truckload segment: revenue grew 35%, and the segment posted an operating loss. The reason is straightforward — JB Hunt was buying third-party spot capacity to cover loads its own fleet couldn't handle, and spot rates have risen faster than the revenue it could charge shippers. That is the supply squeeze expressed in a single P&L line.
CEO Shelley Simpson's language on the call was deliberate: "Capacity has tightened across the industry as safety-focused enforcement and broader supply pressures continue to affect available truckload capacity. The market tightness is being driven primarily by supply conditions." This is not broker commentary or index data. It is the largest publicly traded truckload company in North America confirming, under oath to shareholders, that the supply-side story is real, structural, and priced in. CH Robinson raised its 2026 spot rate forecast to +34% YoY the same week. Contract rates are forecast at +8–12% YoY.
The 10% global import surcharge expired at midnight on July 24 as required by statute. Congress did not extend it. The 150-day clock that started when the measure was enacted ran out without a replacement framework in place.
The Trump administration moved quickly. Bilateral tariff letters covering 60+ countries went out effective August 1 under Section 301 forced-labor authority, at rates of 10–12.5% depending on the country. The mechanism is the same one used in July 2025. Countries that had reached bilateral trade agreements with the U.S. received lower rates; countries without agreements face the full 12.5%.
The practical result for importers: the landed cost of goods that cleared customs between July 24 and August 1 was subject to a brief period of genuine uncertainty. For most major trading partners, the new rates are close enough to Section 122 that the operational impact is limited. The larger question is whether the bilateral framework holds through Q4 or whether another round of escalation arrives before the holiday import cycle peaks.
The national average diesel price jumped $0.218 to $4.796/gal in the week ending July 14 — the largest single-week move in months, and a complete reversal of the trend that had been running since late May. The cause was renewed tension in the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire showed signs of breaking down. Crude moved sharply higher; diesel followed within days.
The practical implication for shippers is twofold. First, fuel surcharge exposure on truckload contracts is a live line item again. The 97-cent decline from the 2026 high that had been providing modest relief on all-in rates has been partially erased in a single week. Second, and more structurally: intermodal is approximately three times more fuel-efficient than over-the-road trucking. Every sustained move up in diesel widens intermodal's total-cost advantage on lanes where it is operationally viable.
JB Hunt's intermodal volume growth — 578,000 loads in Q2, up 10% year-over-year — is partly a reflection of this dynamic. Shippers who shifted to intermodal earlier in the year are now running at 2026 intermodal rates, which are up roughly 2% year-over-year. Shippers still on OTR spot are running at rates up 29% year-over-year. The spread is 27 points and diesel just moved in the direction that widens it further.
The World Cup final at MetLife on July 19 marked the end of the tournament demand layer that had been keeping Northeast reefer rates elevated for six weeks. Philadelphia peaked at $6.18/mi, NY/NJ at $5.75/mi — rates that were 11.4% above the national market at their peak. With the tournament over and the South Texas and Georgia produce corridors easing simultaneously, reefer demand is now declining from two directions at once.
The window between now and when back-to-school demand builds in August is the most favorable reefer negotiating environment of the second half. It is not a long window — back-to-school grocery and beverage demand historically builds through late July — but it is real. Shippers with Q3 reefer contract renewals due should be in conversations with carriers this week, not next.