WK23 · 2026
BEHIND THE SHIELD
Three editions ago, we called the structural shift. WK20 declared the freight recession over — not a seasonal bounce, but a genuine repricing driven by capacity exits. WK21 showed Memorial Day compression accelerating the move. WK22 confirmed rates held after the holiday. Now in WK23, the data is no longer debatable: truckload has repriced to a tighter environment and is staying there.
The Logistics Managers' Index returned a 96 out of 100 for transportation pricing in May — the highest reading ever recorded in the index's 10-year history. Transportation capacity contracted to 31.7, a signal that acceptable carrier supply continues to shrink. Spot rates are running approximately 40% above last year, one of the largest year-over-year moves in the last decade outside of COVID-era distortion.
Diesel pulled back slightly to $5.35/gal this week — down 3.1% week-over-week — providing a modest FSC tailwind. But the structural driver of elevated rates is not fuel. It is capacity. The number of carriers shippers are willing to trust and use consistently has narrowed, and that distinction explains why rates can stay elevated even without a synchronized demand surge across the broader economy.
Van spot at $3.07/mi is up 17.3% year-over-year. Reefer at $3.44/mi reflects a load-to-truck ratio that has nearly doubled versus this time last year. Flatbed at $3.77/mi has pulled back from its record highs but remains well above historical norms.
The Supreme Court's ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II has moved from headline to operational reality. The Court held unanimously that state tort claims against freight brokers for negligent carrier hiring are not preempted by federal law. The preemption defense brokers relied on for decades is gone.
TD Cowen's research framed the downstream impact plainly: broker insurance costs could rise three to five times, pushing smaller operators out of the market entirely. That capacity exit is already underway. Non-compliant carriers — those with safety violations, lapsed insurance, or irregular ELD records — are being squeezed out faster than at any point since the ELD mandate.
Catalyst 1 — Acceptable Capacity Is Shrinking: The sharper issue in today's market is not total available capacity — it is acceptable capacity. Shippers are competing for carriers they are willing to trust and use consistently. That pool is smaller than it was six months ago, and the SCOTUS ruling is accelerating the exit of marginal operators from the network.
Catalyst 2 — Intermodal Is the Pressure Valve: International container volume on rail is up 8% year-over-year. Domestic intermodal is up 14%. Shippers are not moving with maximum urgency — they are trading speed for efficiency where possible. That behavior is rational given current truckload rates, and it is creating a supportive setup for intermodal as long as truckload stays firm.
Catalyst 3 — H2 Energy Baseline: The Strait of Hormuz closure that began in late February is no longer being modeled as a short-term disruption. Analysts are now projecting the energy impact through the rest of the year at minimum. For H2 planning, carrier rate structures, fuel surcharges, and the cost of recovery when shipments miss planned windows all need to be modeled against a diesel baseline that is not returning to pre-2026 levels before peak season.