WK22 · 2026
BEHIND THE SHIELD
The national average on-highway diesel came in at $5.523/gal for the week of May 25 — a 7-cent drop week-over-week, the third consecutive weekly decline. But the structural picture hasn't changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with fewer than six vessel transits per day since March. WTI crude jumped back above $90/barrel late last week following fresh US-Iran strikes, erasing a mid-week dip that had briefly taken Brent below $95.
The White House's Kevin Hassett predicted Hormuz oil shipments could resume "in a month or two," but Piper Sandler's analysis suggests the closure could persist through summer. ExxonMobil warned shareholders that crude could hit $160/barrel if inventories continue shrinking at the current pace. The next EIA diesel reading drops Monday, June 2.
For shippers, the fuel story is clear: diesel is off its peak but remains structurally elevated above $5.50. Budget with $5.40–$5.80 as your baseline through Q3. Any Hormuz escalation resets the floor higher overnight.
The Memorial Day spike was dramatic — all-in spot rates hit $3.73/mi on May 23, the highest single-day reading in the SONAR dataset. When drivers returned after the holiday, rates cooled into the $2.80 range. But this is not a return to softness. The market has found a new, higher floor — and the Supreme Court just raised it further.
Catalyst 1 — Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II: The unanimous SCOTUS ruling reshaping broker liability is already repricing the market. Carriers are becoming extremely selective about which loads they accept and which brokers they work with. FreightWaves reports that brokers who built strong carrier relationships are in a fundamentally different position than those who didn't. Tighter vetting standards are becoming the norm overnight.
Catalyst 2 — Tender Rejections at 16.4%: National outbound tender rejections remain elevated at 16.4%, per NTG Freight data for the week of May 25–29. Routing guides are under stress. Dry van rejections hit a multi-year high of 16.14% during Roadcheck and haven't meaningfully come down. Carriers are turning down contracted freight for better-paying spot opportunities.
Catalyst 3 — Produce Season + Reefer Tightness: California is taking over from Florida as the primary produce origin. Reefer spot rates are at $3.05/mi nationally (linehaul), with produce hub averages at $4.16/mi. Reefer demand is 74% above last year while equipment posts are down 26% YoY. The load-to-truck ratio sits at 22.94 — tight and getting tighter heading into the July 4 peak.
This is not a demand surge — it's a structural capacity squeeze compounded by a regulatory shift. Expect rates to remain elevated and volatile through at least mid-July.